Oscar 2004

Well...it does not seem that I will be participating in any Oscar pools this year. So, what else to do but post the predictions and predilections on the blog!

FILM EDITING
• Daniel Rezende, City of God
• Walter Murch, Cold Mountain
• Jamie Selkirk, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Lee Smith, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• William Goldenberg, Seabiscuit

Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Predilection: Did not see enough of them to have a preference

VISUAL EFFECTS
• Jim Rygiel, Joe Letteri, Randall William Cook and Alex Funke, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Dan Sudick, Stefan Fangmeier, Nathan McGuiness and Robert Stromberg, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibsona nd Terry Frazee, The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Predilection: Did not see enough of them...

SOUND EDITING
• Gary Rydstrom and Michael Silvers, Finding Nemo
• Richard King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Christopher Boyes and George Watters II, The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Prediction: Finding Nemo
Predilection: Finding Nemo

SOUND
• Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Jeff Wexler, The Last Samurai
• Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peck, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Paul Massey, D. M. Hemphill and Arthur Rochester, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Christopher Boyes, David Parker, David Campbell and Lee Orloff, The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
• Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Tod A. Maitland, Seabiscuit

Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Predilection: Did not see enough of them...

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
• Balseros
• Capturing the Friedmans
• The Fog of War
• My Architect
• The Weather Underground

Prediction: The Fog of War
Predilection: My Architect

MAKEUP
• Richard Taylor and Peter King, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Edouard Henriques III and Yolanda Toussieng, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Ve Neill and Martin Samuel, The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Predilection: The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

COSTUME DESIGN
• Dien van Straalen, Girl With a Pearl Earring
• Ngila Dickson, The Last Samurai
• Ngila Dickson and Richard Taylor, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Wendy Stites, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Judianna Makovsky, Seabiscuit

Prediction: The Last Samurai
Predilection: The Last Samurai

ART DIRECTION
• Ben Van Os and Cecile Heideman, Girl With a Pearl Earring
• Lilly Kilvert and Gretchen Rau, The Last Samurai
• Grant Major, Dan Hennah and Alan Lee, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• William Sandell and Robert Gould, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Jeannine Oppewall and Leslie Pope, Seabiscuit

Prediction: The Last Samurai
Predilection: Girl With a Pearl Earring

CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Cesar Charlone, City of God
• John Seale, Cold Mountain
• Eduardo Serra, Girl With a Pearl Earring
• Russell Boyd, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• John Schwartzman, Seabiscuit

Prediction: Girl With a Pearl Earring
Predilection: Girl With a Pearl Earring

ORIGINAL SONG
• "Into the West" from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh, Howard Shore and Annie Lennox
• "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" from A Mighty Wind, Michael McKean and Annette O'Toole
• "Scarlet Tide" from Cold Mountain, T Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello
• "The Triplets of Belleville" from The Triplets of Belleville, Benoit Charest and Sylvain Chomet
• "You Will Be My Ain True Love" from Cold Mountain, Sting

Prediction: "You Will Be My Ain True Love" from Cold Mountain, Sting
Predilection: "The Triplets of Belleville" from The Triplets of Belleville, Benoit Charest and Sylvain Chomet

ANIMATED FEATURE
• Brother Bear
• Finding Nemo
• The Triplets of Belleville

Prediction: Finding Nemo
Predilection: The Triplets of Belleville

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Robert Pulcini and Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor
• Braulio Mantovani, City of God
• Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Brian Helgeland, Mystic River
• Gary Ross, Seabiscuit

Prediction: Brian Helgeland, Mystic River
Predilection: Robert Pulcini and Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Denys Arcand, The Barbarian Invasions
• Steven Knight, Dirty Pretty Things
• Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson and David Reynolds, Finding Nemo
• Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan and Kirsten Sheridan, In America
• Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

Prediction: Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Predilection: Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
• Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
• Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
• Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
• Holly Hunter, Thirteen
• Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Prediction: Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Predilection: Did not see enough of them...

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
• Alec Baldwin, The Cooler
• Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams
• Djimon Hounsou, In America
• Tim Robbins, Mystic River
• Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai

Prediction: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Predilection: Can I say "none"? -- didn't get to see Alec Baldwin, though. I suppose Benicio Del Toro, though it was a bit over the top.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
• Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
• Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
• Samantha Morton, In America
• Charlize Theron, Monster
• Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

Prediction: Charlize Theron, Monster
Predilection: Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
• Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
• Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
• Jude Law, Cold Mountain
• Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
• Sean Penn, Mystic River

Prediction: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Predilection: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation -- and a special nod to Keith Richards as a queer pirate.

DIRECTOR
• Fernando Meirelles, City of God
• Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
• Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Clint Eastwood, Mystic River

Prediction: Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Predilection: Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

BEST PICTURE
• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
• Lost in Translation
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
• Mystic River
• Seabiscuit

Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Predilection: Lost in Translation

Supply and Demand revisited

Finally...one of the rare cases when someone publicly expresses worries about the apparent glut in upcoming construction relative to the demand for office space: Philadelphia Inquirer: "Towers wouldn't just alter skyline."

Now...I wonder if someone could write up a similar piece on the residential market. I expect the same kind of discrepancy to be the case despite the optimism exhibited by all the developers building all those residential towers.

| See: Supply and Demand |

What is wrong with the Sixers

The Sixers are 20-29 and are 2-8 in their last ten games.

They have shown some signs of the team they were expected to be only to swing downward in a display of, to be frank, sloppiness and lack of effort. This is what is wrong:

Injuries
Throughout the season they have been without the following players for extended periods of time: Allen Iverson, Glenn Robinson, Kenny Thomas, Derrick Coleman, Marc Jackson, Aaron McKie, Todd McCulloch (all season), Willie Green and Greg Buckner.

The lack of a cohesive unit practicing and playing together is a nightmare when trying to install any system and it is evident on the court that players are not comfortable with each others habits and court positioning. Even when the core squad is back and healthy, you have to expect a period of, at least, five games for some continuity to set in. It is too late in the season and they are too deep in a hole to contend for the expected top five spots in the Eastern Conference. The goal now is to secure the seventh or eighth spot in the playoff bracket -- and that is looking bleak.

Coaching
Injuries are not new to this team. In the past, under the Larry Brown years, an injured Sixers team demonstrated a solid understanding of defensive concepts and a tough mindedness. Injured Sixer teams in the past never left observers with the view that they lacked effort. They demonstrated solid rotations, good execution and plenty of moxie. This is not the case this year.

This year, the players (and in particular the core group: Allen Iverson, Eric Snow and Aaron McKie) have had to go near the sidelines repeatedly to discuss strategy with their coach, Randy Ayers. Without fail, the conversations have been long and they have demonstrated either a lack of understanding or resistance to Ayers' instructions.

Defensive rotations are poor -- particularly when it comes to interior defense. Offensive execution looks haggard and often random, activity often begins too late in the shot clock (around 12-14 seconds left).

Granted, injuries may have something to do with it, but a sign of good coaching is a team that does not look lax and provides clear effort. Add to this some puzzling substitutions and a tendency to throw junky zone defenses to stop the opposing team and you have a rudderless team.

Players
Anyone pointing fingers at Iverson is just not paying attention. Even though it pains me to say this, Eric Snow looks lost in the current system. His passes have been sloppy and he over-dribbles the ball deep into the shot clock. He has also been taking plenty of bad shots.

I am not sure whether Snow is in a funk because his abilities have eroded this year or whether he is not comfortable with Ayers' offensive schemes. Related to this -- the addition of Glenn Robinson to the team was supposed to take some pressure off AI. This is not happening and I think Ayers and/or Snow have not figured out how to best use Robinson.

Robinson has been a good addition, but he is a defensive liability. He also tends to float in the perimeter waiting for AI or some other player to pass him the ball after some penetration causes the defense to collapse. He is a good perimeter jump shooter but he needs to be more than that: he needs to do some dirty work near the basket. I don't think Ayers is using Robinson well.

I am still hopeful for a playoff appearance at the number eight seed, but I'm not optimistic about any progress beyond the first round.

I miss Larry Brown. It's time to take a serious look at Mo Cheeks and Jim O'Brien either now or in the off-season. I do not think a trade would fix the situation to make an impact this season and, in fact, I think it may hurt more than help (though I do have some thoughts about getting Rasheed Wallace into the mix).