Will the 2004 Presidential Debates have any impact?

It is stunning to me how easy it is to convince a significant number of U.S. citizens that George W. Bush's following traits:

• Cursory and inarticulate understanding of issues
• Simplistic presentation of "good" vs. "evil"
• Continual shifting of purported justifications for pre-emptive war
• Disengagement from global cooperation

are actually examples of:

• Humble and folksy character
• Strength and determination to combat threats
• "Multi-pronged" strategy toward Iraq
• Placement of national security above weaker, global diplomacy

While, at the same time, convincing them that some of John Kerry's vital strengths:

• Thorough and articulate understanding of issues
• Recognition of complexity
• Ability to alter one's views when new information warrants it
• Desire to incorporate global alliances into decision-making

are actually examples of:

• Paralyzing indecisiveness
• Inability to be forceful when confronting threats
• Flip-Flopping
• Allowing U.S. policy to be dictated by foreign influences

This is why, despite Kerry's clear superiority in debates and policy discussions, I am pessimistic about the ultimate impact of these high-visibility outings. This dynamic reminds me of several instances in "office politics" where reasoned and well-spoken analyses get trumped by a need to be efficient and a misunderstanding of the analyses. It seems that just as many corporate organizations need to flatten and simplify decision-making for the sake of efficiency, the electorate is also opting for that model.

Why is a large portion of the electorate swayed toward interpreting simplicity as forcefulness? Complexity as indecisiveness? Global dialogue as weakness? Obviously there is no quick answer, but I am certain that this kind of behavior is reinforced and nurtured by:

• A simple and patriotic approach to civics and U.S history in our educational system
• An insistence to study political science as if it were a type of marketing
• Mainstream media choosing to be a conduit for spin rather than also adopting an analytic approach
• An endorsement of simple analysis as folksy and a condemnation of complex analysis as elitist

This is why I have serious doubts that the debates will have a significant impact on opinion -- unless, of course, some major cosmetic gaffe occurs.

| Political Marketing in EllipticBlog |
| Alternative Political Parties in EllipticBlog |
| FactCheck.org - Annenberg Political Fact Check |
| "More spinned against than spinners" - The Guardian |
| "Tsunami" - Columbia Journalism Review |