Should AI be traded?

The 76ers have enjoyed a stellar, thrilling eight seasons with Allen Iverson. Those seasons, however, have been peppered with annoying and team-eroding actions by Iverson: lack of practice time to develop better team chemistry, petulant refusals to follow directives from head coaches (Larry Brown, Randy Ayers or Chris Ford) and a resistance to altering his training regime to adjust to the demands of the team or the demands on his aging body.

Despite this turbulent tenure, this city loves AI -- he is consistently fearless with this game and a ferocious competitor. He "fits" with the rough-and-tumble aura of Philadelphia. Perhaps more importantly -- he fills the Wachovia Center.

So what is a GM and/or team owner to do?

Let another season go by and treat it as an audition. An argument that has merit points out that the team around AI has been injured and is composed of older veterans that may be wearing down (e.g., Derrick Coleman, Aaron McKie and Eric Snow). Add to this the inordinate amount of injuries throughout the season and a lack of a strong coach to impose a system and...well.

I believe that Billy King has one more try to compose a different team with a strong coach (e.g., Jim O'Brien, Mo Cheeks or George Karl) during this off-season to test whether the "AI problem" is fundamental or whether it is contingent on surrounding factors. If King assembles a new crew and next season looks significantly better, then he can defer addressing whether to trade AI or not.

Granted, building a team around AI has occurred about three or four times already, but this last attempt should not count as a full attempt.

If the team is looking haggard by mid-season, then, try moving AI before the February deadline or, at the latest, during the Summer of 2005. The remaining question at that juncture is this: shall we trade AI for a cluster of younger talent and focus on a rebuilding process or shall we try to get a "superstar" that fits in the mix?

The answer to that question will depend on the kind of crew assembled during the 2004 off-season. I would target the power forward position and try to get a tough-nosed, interior presense with scoring ability -- the Sixers seem to have a track record of getting small forward types that do not get too dirty in the paint (e.g., Keith Van Horn and Glenn Robinson).

So, after all these conditional statements what is the skinny? Trade AI if he does not gel with the new components brought in during this off-season or if the team remains fundamentally unchanged.

What is wrong with the Sixers

The Sixers are 20-29 and are 2-8 in their last ten games.

They have shown some signs of the team they were expected to be only to swing downward in a display of, to be frank, sloppiness and lack of effort. This is what is wrong:

Injuries
Throughout the season they have been without the following players for extended periods of time: Allen Iverson, Glenn Robinson, Kenny Thomas, Derrick Coleman, Marc Jackson, Aaron McKie, Todd McCulloch (all season), Willie Green and Greg Buckner.

The lack of a cohesive unit practicing and playing together is a nightmare when trying to install any system and it is evident on the court that players are not comfortable with each others habits and court positioning. Even when the core squad is back and healthy, you have to expect a period of, at least, five games for some continuity to set in. It is too late in the season and they are too deep in a hole to contend for the expected top five spots in the Eastern Conference. The goal now is to secure the seventh or eighth spot in the playoff bracket -- and that is looking bleak.

Coaching
Injuries are not new to this team. In the past, under the Larry Brown years, an injured Sixers team demonstrated a solid understanding of defensive concepts and a tough mindedness. Injured Sixer teams in the past never left observers with the view that they lacked effort. They demonstrated solid rotations, good execution and plenty of moxie. This is not the case this year.

This year, the players (and in particular the core group: Allen Iverson, Eric Snow and Aaron McKie) have had to go near the sidelines repeatedly to discuss strategy with their coach, Randy Ayers. Without fail, the conversations have been long and they have demonstrated either a lack of understanding or resistance to Ayers' instructions.

Defensive rotations are poor -- particularly when it comes to interior defense. Offensive execution looks haggard and often random, activity often begins too late in the shot clock (around 12-14 seconds left).

Granted, injuries may have something to do with it, but a sign of good coaching is a team that does not look lax and provides clear effort. Add to this some puzzling substitutions and a tendency to throw junky zone defenses to stop the opposing team and you have a rudderless team.

Players
Anyone pointing fingers at Iverson is just not paying attention. Even though it pains me to say this, Eric Snow looks lost in the current system. His passes have been sloppy and he over-dribbles the ball deep into the shot clock. He has also been taking plenty of bad shots.

I am not sure whether Snow is in a funk because his abilities have eroded this year or whether he is not comfortable with Ayers' offensive schemes. Related to this -- the addition of Glenn Robinson to the team was supposed to take some pressure off AI. This is not happening and I think Ayers and/or Snow have not figured out how to best use Robinson.

Robinson has been a good addition, but he is a defensive liability. He also tends to float in the perimeter waiting for AI or some other player to pass him the ball after some penetration causes the defense to collapse. He is a good perimeter jump shooter but he needs to be more than that: he needs to do some dirty work near the basket. I don't think Ayers is using Robinson well.

I am still hopeful for a playoff appearance at the number eight seed, but I'm not optimistic about any progress beyond the first round.

I miss Larry Brown. It's time to take a serious look at Mo Cheeks and Jim O'Brien either now or in the off-season. I do not think a trade would fix the situation to make an impact this season and, in fact, I think it may hurt more than help (though I do have some thoughts about getting Rasheed Wallace into the mix).

1/4 Season Report on Sixers

OK,

Not to brag about my amazing knowledge of the NBA and the Sixers, but I'd like to point out that they are currently 12-12 and this fulfills an earlier prediction I made.

Glenn Robinson looked awful in the last two games after coming back from a high ankle sprain. Despite the fact that Allen Iverson did not play and that the Sixers are riddled with injuries, I think Robinson's sloppy play was a primary reason for the loss to Utah this past Sunday.

The Sixers have a long road trip playing Western Conference team between December 26 and January 3. Before that road trip, they play Miami, Cleveland, Boston and Orlando. It is crucial that they win, at least, 3 out of those 4 in order to amass some "padding" before hitting the West.

Predictions? I expect them to be 14-14 before heading out West and still hovering around the .500 mark after the Western swing. Sigh... thank goodness for a weak Atlantic Division this year.

Chomsky on Sports

In fact, I have the habit when I'm driving of turning on these radio call-in programs, and it's striking when you hear the ones about sports. They have these groups of sports reporters, or some kind of experts on a panel, and people call in and have discussions with them. First of all, the audience obviously is devoting an enormous amount of time to it all. But the more striking fact is, the callers have a tremendous amount of expertise, they have detailed knowledge of all kinds of things, they carry on these extremely complex discussions...

...And when you look at the structure of them, they seem like a kind of mathematics. It's as though people want to work out mathematical problems, and it they don't have calculus and arithmetic, they work them out with other structures...And what all these things look like is that people just want to use their intelligence somehow...

Well, in our society we have things that you might use your intelligence on, like politics, but people really can't get involved in them in a very serious way -- so what they do is put their minds to other things, such as sports. You're trained to be obedient; you don't have an interesting job; there's no work around for you that's creative; in the cultural environment you're a passive observer of usually pretty tawdry stuff...So what's left?

...And I suppose that's also one of the basic functions it serves society in general: it occupies the populations, and it keeps them from trying to get involved with things that really matter. In fact, I presume that's part of the reason why spectator sports are supported to the degree they are by the dominant institutions.

Noam Chomsky; Understanding Power, p. 99-100

Guilty as charged -- well, I do not call in, but D.C. knows. Go Sixers!

Sputtering along...

The Philadelphia 76ers are 7-7. That record will cause many grumblings in this unforgiving town, but we should take note of the justifications (note -- "justifications" not "excuses"). For the past seven games, the Sixers have been missing all or two of their frontcourt starters:

Derrick Coleman at center
Kenny Thomas at power forward
Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson at small forward

It is no surprise, then, that they have been outrebounded in all but two games. Despite that, they have been holding the fort with gutty defensive performances that have been reminiscent of the vicious defensive stands of the 2000-2001 season.

Good news: Marc Jackson has demonstrated that he was not a simple "throw in" to allow for the Glenn Robinson trade. He has had strong offensive performances and he can shoot free throws. The team has demonstrated a relatively balanced offensive output during that stretch.

Wait-and-see: Samuel Dalembert has demonstrated some freakish athletic ability but he needs to develop a smarter defensive game. He has goal-tended too many shots and has a tendency to get caught in mid-air during pedestrian pump fakes.

Once all the starters are back in the rotation, I expect they will need some time to get into the flow of the game. So, my guess is that the Sixers will be flirting with a .500 record for the next ten games or so before stringing out some winning streaks.

AI Press Conference

Catching up...

It's been a while, I know. Let's catch up:

Philadelphia
I've lived here for 5 years now and my internal debate between the "keep-on-renting" and "time-to-buy" sides has intensified. A few years back, I was not sure whether I would commit to a long-term span of living in this city, but through a combination of inertia and some conscious decision-making, it seems that a long-term stay is not in the realm of the fantastic anymore.

Still am not sold on the so-called benefits of ownership -- though the strongest argument I heard is that paying a mortgage should be seen as paying for the right to make a future profit (assuming house prices go up, of course). I've decided to give it one more year and then I'll make the decision.

The city feels like a well-kept secret -- affordable, intriguing, gritty and buzzing with potential future development. Let's see.

Philadelphia 76ers
Well, if I can't commit to home ownership, at least I can commit to a season ticket for the Sixers' 2003-2004 season. New coach (Randy Ayers) and a new offensive threat (Glenn Robinson). I feel optimistic about the upcoming season -- Ayers will allow players to follow their natural tendencies and run the floor and Robinson may be that legitimate 2nd scoring option (finally!). Then again, optimism about a sports team that ends up being misguided is far too common in this town.

EllipticBlog
This has been dormant for a while. I think I need to change its tone and purpose. Instead of only being a collection of relatively serious ruminations, I will open it up and allow shorter, more frequent entries. Open it up to some friends and let them post comments. Make it a more dynamic place. Let's see.

Also, I want to add more photography into the Blog. Will need to carry the Nikon CoolPix 4500 with me often.